For the first time the world is completely divided up, so that in the future only re-division is possible, i.e., territories can only pass from one ‘owner’ to another, instead of passing as ownerless territory to an owner
…this summing up proves that imperialist wars are absolutely inevitable under such an economic system, as long as private property in the means of production exists.
— V. I. Lenin, Imperialism, The Highest Stage of Capitalism, 1916
After the Tariff War, disrupting a number of economies around the world, Trump attacked Venezuela by capturing their President, and started a war, killing Iran’s supreme leader. The Venezuelan government surrendered and struck a deal with the US, however, Iran did not. Iran retaliated with heavy blows to US military bases across the Middle East and choking the Strait of Hormuz.
United States’ Weakness
The last two months of war have revealed the financial and military weakness of the US. The US has been isolated from its traditional European allies and the existence of the NATO alliance is in question. Various European nations have declared openly that they will not accede to the demands of the US. They have not only blocked the usage of their bases for attacks by the US, some of them have accused the Zionist occupation to be Nazis of these times. Countries in the Gulf, South Korea, Japan, who depend on the US for their security are now getting concerned whether they can continue to do so in the future. Some of them have increased their military spending. This situation has already started creating problems for US imperialism.
Financially, the US has already spent nearly 60 billion dollars by now. The overall financial cost of the conflict, which ran for 38 days before the ceasefire took effect, is estimated by two independent groups at between $28 billion and $35 billion — approaching $1 billion per day. As of April 2026, President Donald Trump has requested a historic $1.5 trillion for the fiscal year 2027 defense budget, roughly a 40% to 44% hike. This represents the largest single-year surge in US military spending since World War II.
Militarily, nearly half of the US missile stockpile has been used up, more stocks from South Korea and Japan have been imported. Military experts say that it will take at least 3 years to replenish the missile stockpile. The strength of the US military defense system is weakened. This will affect its competition with the Russian and Chinese imperialists in this multi-polar world order. Various warplanes worth billions of dollars, radar stations in the Gulf, and military bases built up over a long period have been destroyed in Iran’s counter attack. This increased financial burden has affected the US economy. Prices of goods in the US have soared. The inflation rate has gone up. Increased oil prices have benefitted the oil producers but overall, it has negatively impacted the economy. Working masses in the US have come down to streets in millions against Trump’s policies. Dissatisfaction is growing even among Trump supporters. How this will play in the midterm elections is to be seen. In West Asia, the war in Gaza, Israel’s economy is already under pressure. It is estimated that there is 3.5% reduction in growth due to the current war. There have been massive missile attacks in Israel and it has made ordinary lives difficult, many factories and institutions have shut and a lot of people are forced to work from home. Investments and exports have decreased. Militarily too it has exhausted a lot of its missile stockpiles. There is a shortfall of 12,000 people in the army, and this can shoot up soon. Even the head of Israel’s army has openly stated that the army cannot disarm Hezbollah as demanded by Netanyahu.
This is the overall situation of the US-Israel axis. There is a lot of destruction that has happened in Iran as well. Many of its oil and gas production facilities, medical institutions, hospital infrastructures, educational institutions, etc. have been destroyed, more than 3000 people have been killed. Even with so much destruction, Iran has successfully prevented the US-Zionist aggressors from fulfilling its war objectives.
Shifting goal posts
In the beginning of the war, Trump said that the war objective is regime change. On realizing that this was not possible he started shifting goal posts. The stated aims then changed to seizing enriched uranium and then to destruction of missile stockpiles and its capacity to produce missiles. Even though it was claimed that the air force and the naval force was destroyed, Iran continued to launch till the start of the ceasefire. Meanwhile the US and the Zionist colonizers suffered heavy losses. In order to spread the effect of the war and to make it a global issue, Iran has successfully tolled the choke point Strait of Hormuz. In this asymmetric war, Iran is trying to prolong it to weaken its enemy and force them to end the war with a peace treaty. Although the peace talks in Pakistan ended in stalemate, Iran is leading morally.
Changed World Order
China’s advance in the economic sphere, in comparison to the US, is striking. It is leading in AI tech, communications, robotics, electronic batteries, green energy, and has surpassed the US in several critical technological domains. Even in emerging areas such as deep-sea mining, and space technologies, the US is mostly lagging. China has emerged as South America’s largest trading partner, with Chinese capital driving the construction of key infrastructure like railways, ports, and highways, while steadily expanding its control over rare earths and other strategic minerals. Yuan dominance is increasing. In the military sphere too, the balance is shifting, with China building a formidable force and producing weapons five to six times faster than the US. A secret US Defence Department report leaked by the New York Times warned that the US would lose a war with China. Meanwhile, as the US retreats from many international fora, China is asserting itself, and drawing a majority of ‘third world’ countries into its expansive Belt and Road initiative, thereby consolidating its position as a rising imperialist power against the relative weakening of the US. The increasing contradiction between the EU and the US, and the question mark on the existence of NATO, should also be noted.
In such a scenario, a redivision of the world has started, resulting in wars and conflicts all around the world. This is intensifying with some experts strongly indicating the chance of a World War III. The US is trying to maintain dollar dominance over the oil trade. Tariffs, Venezuela, and the Iran war are all consequences of this. Maintaining dollar dominance is the only way by which the US can fund its military expenses all around the world and keep the prices of goods in check. This is the ‘exorbitant privilege’ that it continues to exercise. After the 2022 removal of Russia from the SWIFT system, the process of de-dollarization of the world has escalated. Institutions like the WTO have been made defunct by the US to shift from the era of globalization to the era of protectionism.
India’s Position
India’s position here is volatile, on one end due to its subservience to imperialist economies, and on the other hand, due to multipolarity, India is getting to bargain. Imperialists eye the huge market, cheap labour, and natural resources available in India. However, increasing contradictions between the imperialist forces will shrink this space. India will have to decisively choose a camp.
We are already seeing India’s complete surrender to US tariffs and open siding with the US-Zionist camp. India chose to remain silent for days before making limited outreach to Iran, including a condolence visit by a senior official. India even chose to ignore the inhuman killing of 168 schoolgirls in Minab by the terrorist US. In a situation where Pakistan is being the mediator, Modi’s “Vishwaguru” rhetoric stands humiliated.
India’s surrender should be seen in the light of its economic dependence on the US. The US is India’s largest export destination. With regard to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the US is the third largest ($76.26 billion investment since April 2000), after Mauritius ($182.2 billion) and Singapore ($179.48 billion). It is well known that a major chunk of the investment from Singapore and Mauritius are basically investments by US and other western countries, routed through them, to evade tax. Total multilateral loans by India amounted to $80.77 billion. 38% of it comes from the World bank and IMF which is controlled by the US, Asian Development Bank (ADB) comes second, which is again controlled by Japan and US. Japan, a close ally of the US, is the biggest bilateral loan provider.
This was summarised by Lenin in ‘Imperialism, the Highest Stage of Capitalism’, “Typical of the old capitalism, when free competition held undivided sway, was the export of goods. Typical of the latest stage of capitalism [that is, imperialism], when monopolies rule, is the export of capital”.
The Islamic Republic of Iran
When the war started, the US wrongly assumed that it could bring about a regime change in the aftermath of the attack, using people’s anger against the Iranian government. But that miscalculation does not rule out mass opposition to the regime. We saw the anger of the people erupting during the January agitation. Some protesters from January were hanged. Now the contradiction between the Iranian people and the US-Israel axis has taken a dominant position, in comparison to the internal contradictions. Living conditions in Iran are worsening, inflation has shot up to 40%. Nearly 50% of the employable people are without jobs. Even though US sanctions have played a major role in this crisis, exploitation of the Iranian ruling class is also a big factor. 1% of the population controls 30% of the wealth. IRGC, which is the ideological armed wing of the Islamic regime, is not just a military outfit, it has a major role in the economy. More than half of the oil sector is controlled by it. Iran is basically ruled by its elites, so it would be wrong to characterize it fundamentally as anti-imperialist just because it resists US aggression. The Iranian state had close ties with other western imperialists even during the US sanctions. Now it has close relations with Russian and Chinese imperialists. They are openly helping Iran in the war.
Although it stands within the imperialist system, it is an oppressed country, and thus, the resistance war waged by its rulers against the US-Zionist aggression is just and should be supported by the international progressive forces. At the same time, its anti-people and comprador character should not be ignored. Iran’s emancipation from imperialism cannot be achieved by the current leadership, it can only lead to some rearrangements. However, this resistance has great importance not only for west Asia but for the whole world. The success of Iran in blocking US imperialism and defeating its objectives will have repercussions in politics and people’s struggle. In Iran itself it may lead to a revolutionary awakening.
