Comrade Clifton D’ Rozario State Secretary of CPIML Liberation Karnataka
The dust on the Karnataka elections has now settled. A Congress government led by Siddaramaiah is in place. Having delivered to the Congress a comfortable majority in the Assembly, the people of Karnataka now look forward to a stable government for the next five years and delivery of the promises made to them. In 2018, the BJP had emerged as the largest party and it was only through the corrupt “Operation Kamala” that it could usurp power after a year by engineering splits and purchasing MLAs. The government unabashedly pursued its communal, casteist and corporate agenda. Indeed the legacy of this BJP rule is unprecedented corruption, rising prices and cost of living, crumbling infrastructure, anti-farmers and antiworker laws, skyrocketing unemployment, a crippled state economy reeling from increasing debt, violence against women and their freedom and autonomy, increasing caste
discrimination and atrocities, communal disharmony and religious hatred.
The Congress has won 135 seats with 43% vote share, which are both the largest obtained by any party in Karnataka since 1989. In the 2018 elections the Congress had won 80 seats with 38.1% vote share. Karnataka, where the BJP has enjoyed the best electoral success in South India, is also the only state in South India which has seen a BJP government. This time around the BJP could win only 66 seats with 36% vote share compared to the 104 seats with 36.2% vote share in the 2018 elections. JDS has won 19 Assembly seats with 13% vote share. In the 2018 elections, the JDS had won 37 seats with 18% vote share. This is its lowest tally since 1999.
(i)Region-wise performance:
The territory of Karnataka is divided into six political sub-regions that differ in terms of social composition, economic attributes, and political history. Traditionally these sub-regions have been the bastions of different parties. While Coastal Karnataka and Central Karnataka are seen as BJP strongholds, Congress is seen to be strong in Hyderabad Karnataka, and the JDS is concentrated in Old Mysuru region.
Bengaluru, and to a lesser extent Mumbai Karnataka, have seen Congress and BJP battle it out for supremacy.
The Coastal Karnataka is a traditional stronghold of the BJP, where it has enforced its Hindutva agenda on the ground and the BJP has performed strongly by winning 13 out of the available 19 seats. However, the BJP has lost 3 seats from 2018 and its vote share reduced by 3.1%. While the BJP has performed well in their stronghold, we cannot ignore that the Congress has bettered its 2018 performance, both in terms of vote share and number of seats won.
In the Old Mysore region, the JDS has traditionally performed well. However, they lost almost half the seats they had won in 2018, with a tally of 14 seats, compared to 26 in 2018, and lost almost 7% vote share. The Congress performed well by increasing the seats tally to 43 seats and an increased vote share of 6.9%. The BJP too increased its vote share by 2.8% even with a win in only 5 seats, which was 16 in 2018.The efforts to communalise the Vokkaliga votebank using the concocted story of Urigowda Nanjegowda killing Tipu Sultan, and the attempt to woo the community with increased reservation quota, has failed.
While the BJP has traditionally performed well in the Kittur Karnataka region, this time they faced a reduced seat tally from 30 to 16 seats, with a dip in vote share by 2.8%. With a vote share of more than 40% for the first time in three decades, the Congress won 33 out of 55 seats in the region, and has shaken the BJP’s stronghold.
The Congress increased its vote share in Central Karnataka by a massive 7.5% resulting in an increased seats from 4 to 15! The BJP won 6 seats and lost 10 seats. In their traditional stronghold of Kalyana Karnataka, the Congress increased its vote share by 4.2% and won 26 seats. BJP’s vote share dipped by 3.1%, and reduced the number of seats won from 15 to 10 seats. The Congress has bettered its performance due to the large concentration of Scheduled Caste voters and Mallikarjun Kharge factor.
The BJP made a strong pitch in the Bengaluru region and particularly relied on ‘Brand Modi’, where a two-day citywide roadshow was organised. Like Central Karnataka, this region has seen strong tussles between the Congress and the BJP. The Congress’ seat tally reduced from 15 to 13 seats, while the BJP increased its tally from 11 to 15 seats. BJP achieved an increase of 5.3% vote share, and Congress by 1%. JDS lost both the seats it won in 2018.
(ii)Reserved constituencies:
Out of the 51 reserved constituencies in Karnataka (36 for SC and 15 for ST), the BJP won 12 seats, while the Congress improved from 12 to 21 seats, and JDS picked up 3. The Congress swept ST constituencies, by winning in 14 and JDS took the remaining 1 seat. BJP’s tallest ST leader and former minister – B. Sriramulu – was defeated. Despite the decision of the Bommai government to increase reservation quota for SC (from 15% to 17%) and ST (3% to 7%) were seen as gimmicks, since the approval of the Union Government was not given.
(iii)Women & Minority Candidates:
With 10 women candidates, including Kaneez Fathima, the lone Muslim woman candidate who won from Gulbarga North constituency from a Congress ticket, this is the highest tally of women MLAs since 1989. There are 4 women MLAs each from Congress and BJP, 1 from JDS and 1 independent. There are nine MLAs from the Muslim community and one from Christian community.
Class matters: The scale of Congress’s victory, both in terms of seats won and vote share, suggests that both its traditional base and poorer voters from other castes have backed the party in this elections. Caste is a major factor in
deciding the electoral prospects of the three major parties, but is not the sole defining factor as was seen in this election. Traditionally, BJP has the predominant support of Brahmins an Lingayats, the AHinDa (Kannada acronym for Minorities, Backward Classes and Dalits) behind the Congress, and the Vokkaligas behind the JDS. Despite this, two exit polls – India Today-Axis My India and Eedina, confirm that economic considerations had a telling influence on voters’ decisions. The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey data revealed that unemployment was the biggest voting issue for voters in the State followed by poverty and price rise. The emergence of a class coalition transcending traditional caste boundaries is a distinctive factor in the Karnataka assembly elections. Thus, BJP’s endeavour to communalise the caste matrix while disregarding the severe economic distress faced by the people, has come a cropper.
(iv)Setback to Hindutva:
BJP entered this elections with the knowledge of the anti-incumbency factor and sought to counter this with Hindutva and the Modi blitz – these were also sought to override the caste equations and coalitions. To this end, BJP cast aside several strong Lingayat leaders, including Yeddiyurappa and gave tickets to as many as 75 new contestants from the RSS stables. The BJP, in its manifesto, promised to implement a uniform civil code (UCC) in Karnataka, introduce a national register of citizens (NRC), and set up a special police unit to probe religious fundamentalism. It also promised three free cooking gas cylinders to all BPL families — one each during the months of “Yugadi”, “Ganesh Chaturthi” and “Deepavali”. On the other hand, Congress went on the offensive against communal politics; its manifesto titled, “Sarva Janangada
Shanthiya Thota” i.e. “Peaceful garden of all communities”, promised action against any organisation that breaks the law, spreads religious hatred, religious bigotry and communal violence and went on to name the Bajrang Dal.
When the manifesto was released, a media frenzy was created over this. Modi included, BJP leaders invoked Bajrangbali’s name in every rally, a call was given for chanting of the Hanuman
Chalisa on 9th May, and efforts were made to equate the Bajrang Dal with Bajrang Bali. All of this failed. The emphasis on “double engine” government, lack of state-centric issues, and handing over of the State to Modi, Yogi, etc. also offended regional pride and aspirations. Is this election a referendum on Hindutva or hate politics? Perhaps for now, it is definitely a setback to the Hindutva agenda. BJP’s vote share/number of seats have reduced in coastal Karnataka, where it has put in decades of work to communally polarise the region. Significantly, two of the most prominent faces of the Hindutva brand of politics lost in these elections. CT Ravi, BJP National Secretary, lost in Chikkamagalur. Primary and Secondary Education Minister BC Nagesh, instrumental in enforcing the hijab ban, lost the election from Tiptur.
(v)The aura of invincibility of brand Modi has worn off:
Much hype has been created around Modi, as the BJP’s most reliable election campaigner and an aura of invincibility was consciously cultivated. This election saw the BJP deploy Modi as the focal point of BJP’s
campaign, and Modi made this all about himself, diving deep into victimhood alleging that he was abused 91 times. Despite live coverage of Modi’s two-day roadshow in Bengaluru, the gamble failed and did little to alter BJP’s fate. Two indicators point to its abject failure. Firstly, the voter turnout in Bengaluru
was poor. Secondly, there was no major bump in the number of seats won or vote share. The seats won by the BJP increased from 11 to 15 (including those who shifted to the BJP in 2022). The BJP indulged in serious malpractice to steal the Jayanagar seat. Despite hate speeches, calls for votes on religious
lines, blatant violation of the Representation of People Act and the Model Code of Conduct by Modi and
the BJP, the Election Commission turned a blind eye.
(vi)Role of Civil Society:
The role played by civil society organisations like ‘Bahutva Karnataka’ and ‘Eddelu Karnataka’ is noteworthy in impacting the election outcome. For the first time in history, Karnataka has experienced non-party organisation playing an active role and urging people to reject the divisive, communal and anti-people BJP. Bahutva Karnataka released sector-wise report cards exposing the abject failure of the BJP government, which was also used for various materials to give information to voters. Eddelu Karnataka had numerous progressive thinkers, litterateurs, civil society activists and groups, who took out voter enrolment drives, held seminars and press meets to inform people about the failures and atrocities of the BJP government. Slum Janandolana – Karnataka, Samyukta Horata, Campaign Against Hate Speech were other organisations that helped shape public opinion during the elections.
Another contributing factor was the coming together of the various splintered factions of Dalit organisation, who held a massive convention in December 2022, which called for total opposition to communal forces and was instrumental in reversing the trend of BJP making in-roads into the Dalit vote base, and consolidated the Dalit vote behind the Congress.
(vii)Going forward:
The decisive defeat of the BJP accentuates the trend of the BJP losing power in the states. With Karnataka out of its grasp, the BJP has no government in South India, thus cementing its identity as a North Indian
party. The significance of this verdict is the implications it holds for the 2024 parliamentary elections. Without doubt a victory for the BJP would have bolstered its belligerence, while knocking the
steam out of the opposition parties. Karnataka was the only State in South India where the BJP was in power – the “Gateway to the South”. This door stands shut now and the electoral battle, for now shifts to the upcoming Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana in the lead up to the parliamentary elections in 2024. These electoral battles against the BJP are part of a long protracted struggle to ensure an emphatic rejection of corporate communal fascism of the Sangh Parivar.
(This is an abridged version of the article that appeared in Liberation June 2023 issue.)
